dc.contributor.author | BLOOMFIELD, DAVID SHAUN | |
dc.contributor.author | HIGGINS, PAUL A | |
dc.contributor.author | MC ATEER, ROBERT THOMAS JAMES | |
dc.contributor.author | GALLAGHER, PETER THOMAS | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2014-01-22T12:50:41Z | |
dc.date.available | 2014-01-22T12:50:41Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2012 | |
dc.date.submitted | 2012 | en |
dc.identifier.citation | Bloomfield, D. S., Higgins, P. A., McAteer, R. T. J., Gallagher, P. T., Towards Reliable Benchmarking of Solar Flare Forecasting Methods, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 747, 2, 2012, L41 | en |
dc.identifier.other | Y | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2262/67857 | |
dc.description | PUBLISHED | en |
dc.description.abstract | Solar flares occur in complex sunspot groups, but it remains unclear how the probability of pro- ducing a flare of a given magnitude relates to the characteristics of the sunspot group. Here, we use Geostationary Operational Environment Satellite X-ray flares and McIntosh group classifications from solar cycles 21 and 22 to calculate average flare rates for each McIntosh class and use these to deter- mine Poisson probabilities for different flare magnitudes. Forecast verification measures are studied to find optimum thresholds to convert Poisson flare probabilities into yes/no predictions of cycle 23 flares. A case is presented to adopt the true skill statistic (TSS) as a standard for forecast comparison over the commonly used Heidke skill score (HSS). In predicting flares over 24 hr, the maximum values of TSS achieved are 0.44 (C-class), 0.53 (M-class), 0.74 (X-class), 0.54 (?M1.0), and 0.46 (?C1.0). The maximum values of HSS are 0.38 (C-class), 0.27 (M-class), 0.14 (X-class), 0.28 (?M1.0), and 0.41 (?C1.0). These show that Poisson probabilities perform comparably to some more complex predic- tion systems, but the overall inaccuracy highlights the problem with using average values to represent flaring rate distributions.oups | en |
dc.format.extent | L41 | en |
dc.language.iso | en | en |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | The Astrophysical Journal Letters; | |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | 747; | |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | 2; | |
dc.rights | Y | en |
dc.subject | sunspots | en |
dc.subject | Sun: flares | en |
dc.subject | Sun: activity | en |
dc.subject | Magnetic fields | en |
dc.title | Towards Reliable Benchmarking of Solar Flare Forecasting Methods | en |
dc.type | Journal Article | en |
dc.type.supercollection | scholarly_publications | en |
dc.type.supercollection | refereed_publications | en |
dc.identifier.peoplefinderurl | http://people.tcd.ie/gallagpt | |
dc.identifier.peoplefinderurl | http://people.tcd.ie/bloomfis | |
dc.identifier.peoplefinderurl | http://people.tcd.ie/mcateert | |
dc.identifier.rssinternalid | 79581 | |
dc.rights.ecaccessrights | OpenAccess | |
dc.contributor.sponsor | Marie Curie | en |
dc.contributor.sponsorGrantNumber | 237645 | en |