Tests for the macroeconomic effects of large-scale migration based on the Irish experience, 1948-87 - a comment

Abstract

Walsh (1989) addresses an interesting and extremely pertinent problem: What is the causal relationship between migration, as proxied by the net migration rate (NMR), and economic activity, as proxied by the percentage change in real GNP per capita (GNP). Is there a feedback from NMR to GNP or is the feedback confined to GNP influencing NMR? Walsh finds evidence (admittedly weak) that there is causality running to migration from economic activity, but that there is no statistically significant evidence of changes in migration influencing economic growth. The implications, left unstated for the most part, are that migratory flows are, economically at least, not necessarily a bad thing. In this comment, it is intended to concentrate on two aspects of the paper, and to attempt to extend the analysis a little further.