The influence of turnout on the results of the referendum to amend the constitution to include a clause on the rights of the unborn - a review of Walsh findings

Abstract

In a recent article Walsh analysed the effect of the low level of turnout on the results of the September 1983 Referendum and stated that `the most important general conclusion from the study is that the level of support for the amendment in the population seems to have been higher than that indicated in the Referendum results.? This article is a detailed review of the meaning, logic, and methodology of Walsh's study. First, it questions the validity of Walsh's attempt to allocate a preference either for or against the constitutional amendment to those who did not vote. Second, it is shown that his key inference, `that those who abstained in each constituency were more likely to have held a 'yes' opinion than those who voted?, does not follow logically from the statistical relationship identified by him. In addition, a number of important statistical and methodological errors in Walsh's paper are identified and these further invalidate his conclusions.