Trends in short-term macro-economic forecasting for demand management

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to provide a summary description of the methods used in the preparation, monitoring and updating of the Department of Finance's macroeconomic forecasts, with particular emphasis on certain techniques employed which are still in an experimental stage. Dr Menton in his 1964 paper described the eclectic method then used for short-term forecasting in the Department. The first part of our paper is concerned with providing an up-dated description of the short-term economic forecasting process and the second part describes the experimental work to date, aimed at developing a systematic method of reviewing the annual forecasts month by month.