The impact of the patent cliff on Pharma-Chem output in Ireland

Abstract

Ireland has a well-established specialisation in pharma-chem production, with nine of the top ten multinational corporations located in Ireland. The sector accounts for about 11 per cent of value added although due to its knowledge-intensive nature its share in employment and the labour share of value added are modest by comparison. Ireland is the production base for a number of patented drugs which have gone or are going off patent in quick succession, including the global bestseller in 2011. These expiries are having an impact on pharma-chem production in Ireland. Both output and exports are down from their mid-2012 peaks, although the headline impact is likely to be offset to an (uncertain) extent by reduced imports of royalties. Ireland is likely to continue to feel the impact of the patent cliff as drugs being produced in Ireland continue to come off patent in coming years. A working paper by the same authors was released last October setting out a number of simulations which used various export declines and import responses and suggests a net impact of a loss of two to four percentage points from GDP over a four-year horizon, depending on assumptions used. This paper builds on that working paper, looking at high-frequency developments the latter half of 2013, as well as the impact on employment in the sector following a number of announcements in relation to job losses and plant closures in 2013.