A model for the spread of infectious diseases in a region
Citation:
Hunter, Elizabeth; MacNamee, Brian; Kelleher, John, 'A model for the spread of infectious diseases in a region', International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2020, 17, 9Download Item:
Abstract:
In understanding the dynamics of the spread of an infectious disease, it is important to
understand how a town’s place in a network of towns within a region will impact how the disease
spreads to that town and from that town. In this article, we take a model for the spread of an
infectious disease in a single town and scale it up to simulate a region containing multiple towns.
The model is validated by looking at how adding additional towns and commuters influences the
outbreak in a single town. We then look at how the centrality of a town within a network influences
the outbreak. Our main finding is that the commuters coming into a town have a greater effect on
whether an outbreak will spread to a town than the commuters going out. The findings on centrality
of a town and how it influences an outbreak could potentially be used to help influence future policy
and intervention strategies such as school closure policies.
Sponsor
Grant Number
Science Foundation Ireland
13/RC/2106
Author's Homepage:
http://people.tcd.ie/kellehjd
Author: Kelleher, John
Type of material:
Journal ArticleCollections
Series/Report no:
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health;17;
9;
Availability:
Full text availableKeywords:
infectious disease, epidemiology, simulation, Agent-based model, CentralityDOI:
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17093119Metadata
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